Journal papers

• Cos P., Marcos-Matamoros R., Donat M. et al. (2024). Near-Term Mediterranean Summer Temperature Climate Projections: A Comparison of Constraining Methods. Journal of Climate37, 4367-4388. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0494.1.
  Keywords: multi-model; projections; constraining methods; summer temperature; Mediterranean.

• Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. (2024). Decadal climate prediction and predictability for climate services. Doctoral Thesis. http://hdl.handle.net/2445/210812.
  Keywords: decadal prediction; climate services; thesis.

• Donat, M. G., Mahmood R., Cos P., et al. (2024). Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations. Environmental Research: Climate 3, 035013. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463.
  Keywords: climate prediction; climate variability; climate change; constraining climate simulations.

• Dunstone N. J., Smith, D. M., Atkinson, C., et al. (2024). Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
  Atmospheric Science Letters, e1254. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254.
  Keywords: atmospheric and climate dynamics, climate variability, impacts, extremes.

• Ermis S., Leach N. J., Lott F. C. et al. (2024). Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts.
  Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 035001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200.
  Keywords: extreme weather; midlatitude cyclones; attribution; storm Eunice; forecast-based attribution.

• Hansen, F., Belušić, D., and Wyser, K. (2024). Relationship between circulation types and extreme precipitation over Scandinavia is stable under climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL109704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109704.
  Keywords: large ensemble; natural climate variability; extremes; forced response.

• Karami M.P., Koenigk T., Schenk F. (2024). Unravelling the impact of subpolar gyre variability on climate extremes and variability: Insights from an ensemble atmospheric model study. EGU Abstract, EGU24-15292. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15292.
  Keywords: EGU; climate predictability; subpolar gyre; teleconnections; extremes; poster.

• Leach, N.J., Roberts, C.D., Aengenheyster, M. et al. (2024). Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts.
  Nature Communications 15, 4530. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7.
  Keywords: extreme event; weather; heatwave; risk; adaptation; human influence.

• Main, L., Sparrow, S., Weisheimer, A., and Wright, M. (2024). Skilful probabilistic medium-range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system. Meteorological Applications, 31(4), e2222. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222.
  Keywords: predictive skill; meteorological variables; downscaling; epidemiology; urban areas.

• Mindlin J., Vera C. S., Shepherd T. G. et al. (2024). Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective. Climate Services 34, 100480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480.
  Keywords: Climatic impact-drivers; viticulture; Storylines; Model uncertainty.

• Patterson, M., Befort, D. J., O’Reilly, C. H., et al. (2024). Drivers of the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast for the hot and dry European summer of 2022. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2024, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4851
  Keywords: hindcast, initialisation, seasonal, temperature circulation, anomaly.

• Pérez-Zanón, N. Agudetse, V., Baulenas, E., et al. (2024). Lessons learned from the co-development of operational climate forecast services for vineyards management. Climate Services 36, 100513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100513 
  Keywords: climate services, co-development, forecast, viticulture, wine sector, seasonal.

• Pohlmann H. and Müller W. A. (2024). The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR.
  EGU Abstract, EGU24-1411. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1411.
  Keywords: EGU; variability; forcings; historical simulations; poster.

• Rashid, I.U., Abid, M.A., Osman, M. et al. (2024). Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia. Clim Dyn 62, 9361-9375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5
  Keywords: ENSO, interannual variability, predictability, SEAS5, skill, teleconnection.

• Senan, R., Balmaseda, M. A., Molteni, F., et al (2024). The relative role of Indian and Pacific tropical heating as seasonal predictability drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 129, e2024JD041233. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041233
  Keywords: predictability, NAO, forcing, teleconnections, uncertainty.

• Wright, M. J., Weisheimer, A., and Woollings, T. (2024). Multi-decadal skill variability in predicting the spatial patterns of ENSO events.
  Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL107971. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107971.
  Keywords: El Niño Southern Oscillation; sea‐surface temperature; skill; hindcast; multi-decadal.

• Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., López-Nevado J. et al. (2023). Comparison of five strategies for seasonal prediction of bioclimatic indicators in the olive sector. Climate Services, 30, 100345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100345
  Keywords: climate services; olive sector; bioclimatic indicator; blending strategy.

• Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., Palma Garcia L. et al. (2023). Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector. Climate Services, 30, 100343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343
  Keywords: climate services; wine sector; bioclimatic indicator; blending strategy.

• De Luca P., Delgado-Torres C., Mahmood R. et al. (2023). Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 094054. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf389
  Keywords: decadal variability; extremes; climate projections; near-term projections; adaptation.

• Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. et al. (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 034031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1
  Keywords: decadal climate predictions; extremes; forecast quality assessment; CMIP6.

• Donat, M. G., Delgado-Torres, C., De Luca, P. et al. (2023). How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102466. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102466
  Keywords: CMIP6; precipitation; extremes; trustworthiness; skill.

• Dunstone, N., Smith, D.M., Hardiman, S.C. et al. (2023). Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022. Nature Communications 14, 6544. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42377-1
  Keywords: seasonal forecasts; extremes; skill; regional climate; early warning.

• Liu, Y., Donat, M.G., England, M.H. et al. (2023). Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nature Communications, 14, 6387. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9
  Keywords: predictability; ENSO; regional climate; interannual; decadal prediction.

• Pérez-Zanón N., Ho A.C., Chou C. et al. (2023). CSIndicators: Get tailored climate indicators for applications in your sector. Climate Services, 30, 100393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100393
  Keywords: climate services; adaptation; climate prediction; sectoral applications.

• Polkova I., Swingedouw D., Hermanson L. et al. (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5:1273770. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770
  Keywords: AMOC; climate predictions; decadal; skill; subpolar gyre.