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Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes

Decadal predictions can provide relevant climate information for decision-making over multiple years. A recent study funded by ASPECT assesses the quality of multi-model decadal predictions of extreme temperature and precipitation.

Context

The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is affected by both global warming and other natural variations in the Earth’s climate. Anticipating the changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events in advance can help minimise the impact on nature, society and the economy. Climate predictions for the coming decades, known as multi-annual or decadal predictions, are useful for strategic decision-making; however, it is important to understand the trustworthiness of these predictions particularly when they are used to develop climate services. Globally, there are numerous institutions modelling the Earth’s climate. To make sure the results from the different climate models are comparable and robust, there is an international scientific collaboration of climate modelling centres under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The data from the latest collaboration, CMIP6, provides the foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Reports.

Key findings​

  • This research evaluated the quality of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model global decadal forecast for climate extremes.
  • The quality of the forecasts were assessed by comparing how closely model predictions of the past replicated historical measurements over the same timespan.
  • The CMIP6 decadal forecast was found to skilfully predict climate extremes, in particular extremely hot or cold temperatures for the next 5 years.
  • The multi-model forecasts could be improved for extreme rainfall, for which the skillful predictions are limited to some regions of Africa, Europe, South America, Australia and Eurasia.

Implications

Reliable predictions of extremes are essential to build the resilience of socio-environmental systems and to help minimise negative impacts. This assessment of the multi-model decadal predictions will help those making strategic decisions understand the trustworthiness of multi-annual climate forecasts. This method of comparing past climate predictions to past observations to evaluate model performance, and their comparison to past climate projections, can help climate service providers to select the highest quality climate information based on the user requirements.

Read full study here

Reference
Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A., et al. (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 034031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1

Keywords: decadal climate predictions, extreme climate events, forecast quality assessment, CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, impact of model initialisation.

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) under grant agreement No. 101081460.